Speaking about Wars is NOT appropriate .. but here we face the Probability of an expected American Iranian War .. whether limited Tactical or Deep Strategic ..

All options as / Media / says are Open on Table .. open ended or closed ended engineering circuits.. but here we have an ( Event ) which is the happening of war or not happening .. thus evaluating the probability of the event digitally or numerically .

War games on Video may be entertaining .. but real war on ground isn’t so .. since there are too much fire force capacities available .. in this high advanced technology era .. rocket missiles guided and fighters tanks huge carriers by sea land air space .. eventually there are Nuclear forces either atomic or hydrogen bombs .. by Fission or Fusion Methods .. besides Dirty Bombs .. maybe Neutron bombs .. even acoustic and electromagnetic wave ( bombs ) .. too much names of weapons ..

We just speak here about the Probability of such war happening .. an event may or may Not occur .. too many factors and conditions and circumstances play role in different ratios .. besides the question of ( Taking or Making Decisions ) etc. So let us say ( symbolically ) that the P ( W ) equals ( 75 % ) as an example during this Summer 2007 ..

If war starts it is with high probability that Hermoz Strait of Arabian Gulf would be closed ( By both sides ) and automatically the rise steep of Oil Price ..

So in Economy or Energy Economics there is Expert Predictions of Price Fluctuations .. this is as said : conditional probability .. sequence of events related to each other directly or indirectly .. and there are advanced world wide Research Study Centers involved in such ( academic scientific ) questions ..

Crude oil reserves in Gulf region estimated 800 mlrd (bn) barrels that is 2/3 of world total reserve .. Struggle over oil next decades , America following the method of Crisis Management , Iran building Nuclear Capabilities for energy and power factor , Russia seeking promotion of Nuclear energy technology marketing economics , China India growth needs energy .. Europe seeking stability .. the World between ( Crisis Management and finding creative optimum solutions for Global issues ) .

We began this article with a Big Title Address above .. but as we write we feel the high Complexity .. ending the article in usual traditional way or known form .. The World is shaping for this 21st Century ..  So here is the temporary end of my article !!

 

Pierre Hanna Iwaz

Engineer / Researcher

Energy Informatics Systems

Syria Aleppo , 27 Aug. 2007

الأعضاء المسجّلين فقط بوسعهم التعليق، أدخل أو سجّل نفسك
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